Economic recovery faces a real storm: bottlenecks in supplies, rising inflation, and raw materials that cannot be found. So how is this chaos impacting six world powers?
The world is in the midst of a serious economic crisis: after the pandemic’s peak, what is worrying is the imbalance between the surge in demand and the shortage of supply on a global level.
Throttled supply chains, unavailable raw materials, insufficient energy resources, skyrocketing prices, and a lack of workers: this mix of problems is clashing with the need for world economies to resume growth after Covid quickly.
What is happening in the major powers? A look at the salient economic facts that are shaking six great nations from envoys of The Guardian.
There is not only the institutional impasse to worry American power. While there is no agreement to raise or suspend the maturing debt ceiling, the nation also faces global problems with the risk of default for the US.
Off the coast of Los Angeles, some ships are waiting to unload cargo. As the holiday season approaches, businesses in the United States predict shortages and price hikes for everything from artificial Christmas trees and sporting goods to Thanksgiving turkeys.
Retailers warn that commodities, including toilet paper, may once again be in short supply.
Container ship traffic jams are only part of the problems. The United States is experiencing a massive labor shortage, especially in the leisure and entertainment sector. At the end of June, 10 million job offers were registered, showing a shortage of workers.
Investment banks Nomura and Goldman Sachs have downgraded their growth forecasts for the Chinese economy: the power outages that have recently blocked factories and are extending already long delays in ports weigh on the worsening outlook.
The energy crisis that broke out in China has shocked the world and the power itself. Lauri Myllyvirta, an analyst at the Independent Center for Energy and Clean Air Research, said China was surprised.
“As fuel prices began to rise in the wake of the global recovery, power plants reduced their coal purchases and ran out of supplies for months. This has meant that the plants have run out of coal and are reluctant to buy more as prices have skyrocketed. “
China is also trapped in the emission reduction targets, with some industries pressed on pollution limits and forced to slow production.
The 14.3% rise in energy prices in Germany and the ripple effect on gasoline (up 20%) and food prices (4.9%) contributed to the jump in the inflation rate in September at 4.1%, the highest in nearly 30 years.
The Bundesbank expects inflation to rise to 5% by the end of the year. The increase in the VAT rate drove the surge in prices after it was temporarily lowered last year to help companies cope with the pandemic and increase tariffs on CO2 emissions and a scarcity of metals. Wood and semiconductors.
As a result, a growing number of German workers, including train drivers, health workers, and RV workers, have been on strike in recent weeks, demanding higher wages due to rising inflation.
Although there is no full discussion of the crisis in Germany, which is preparing to form the new government and dismiss the Merkel era, the automotive industries themselves are struggling, pressured by the lack of chips.
As energy prices rise elsewhere, Russia finds itself enviable as the world’s largest net exporter of oil and gas combined.
However, even in the shadow of the Kremlin, there is no shortage of difficulties. The ‘Food inflation is at a record annual rate of 7%, the highest in five years.
And hotels and restaurants signal a catastrophic shortage of workers, partly due to the migrant crisis in Russia. In addition, construction and agriculture have been hit by a shortage of some 600,000 workers from Central Asia who left during the pandemic.
First, the shortage of workers forced into isolation for having been in contact with Covid infected, now the lack of truck drivers: the United Kingdom is in trouble.
The queues at petrol stations in search of scarce petrol because without drivers to supply it is weighing on the British economy. Brexit also plays its role, as the now missing truckers were mostly EU workers (now out of business with stricter entry rules).
The economy remains down 3.5% from before the pandemic. Moreover, production remains 2.5% lower than its previous high in 2019.
Even those who have accumulated huge savings over the past 18 months are also expected to become more cautious in their shopping habits after a steep rise in inflation that the Bank of England forecasts at more than 4% by the end. Of the year.
The timber shortage, steel, and other materials are causing chaos in the enormous Australian construction industry, and manufacturers struggle to keep up with demand.
With house prices rising at their fastest rate since 1989 due to post-pandemic demand and government stimulus, businesses are scrambling to get supplies as prices soar.